So, elections a foregone conclusion, new leaders for the Green and FDP have been chosen (on whom I'll comment when a.- they become official and b.- they have some relevance which is to say, have done something). For the time being the question in everyone's mind is will it be a grand coalition (CDU/CSU/SPD) a black/green coalition or far less palatable red/red/green?
I posit that Angela Merkel should not even approach the SPD who're still undecided if they'd agree to a grand coalition and instead first address the green party. There are several points why this is the best solution and also the most promising, so let us go over it:
1.- The SPD has not yet decided whether they want a grand coalition, and they went on a platform based on increased taxes, which would lower Germany's competitivness to attract qualified immigrants (German language being already a rather daunting barrier for some). They are also unlikely to support any of the reforms which Germany needs and were the ones to get rid of the nomminal tuition fees for university students.
2.- The SPD's record is also not very good. They got Nordrhine Westfalia on a platform for education, after which Hanelore Kraft (who leads the state's parliament) started cutting education budget and reducing the number of teachers.
3.- After the election the Green party has gotten rid of Mr. Trittin who's in part responsible for making the party rather red than green. The new leadership is more likely to accomodate serious proposals instead of just rambling about tax increases. Furthermore, ruling on a national level with the CDU would make wonders for the greens, they might remember what they stand for and help their shift to the right (which is to be expected under the new leadership).
4.- If Merkel takes too long to form a ruling coalition and the SPD decides it cannot enter the grand coalition they might be tempted to attempt a red/red/green coalition. This would be the worst possible outcome, even if such a coalition is likely to cause early elections they would wreak havoc by setting a minimum wage beyond all reasonable values, rising taxes and just basically making a lousy copy of the DDR.
A black/green coalition would provide a solid majority in parliament and start the political debate rolling again in parliament. A black/red coalition with Merkel's particular brand of conciliatory leadership would just make politics in Germany even more dull. If there's hope that Ms. Merkel will rise to the challenge of pushing through the reforms needed in Germany and Europe, then black/green is the most adequate platform.
Samstag, 28. September 2013
Sonntag, 22. September 2013
Why the 2013 electiion in Germany might be a blessing in disguise
Well maybe not as disguised, but my hope is that it will improve democracy in Germany in the long run. I personally dislike Angela Merkel, I disagree with her response to the Euro crisis, to syria, her overall taciturn approach, and I have serious problems with a party that calls itself christian (or muslim, or jew, mormon or buddhist for that matter), but the options were far worse.
Being honest though, she does have strengths and her victory is the least worse scenario for Germany and Europe. Furthermore, now she has the political capital to presse for more union in the EU, and to pushe for reforms within Germany, hopefuly also the courage. But I disgress.
What I really wanted to talk about is the overwhelming defeat of the FDP and their failure to overcome the 5% threshhold, and the low numbers for the greens. In the past years we've seen a decline in the political debate as yellow (FDP) shifted towards black (CDU) and green towards red (SPD). Politics have been done by opinion polls as a consequence of the proportional representation system, leading to a loss of diferentiation between parties.
As the rise of the AfD proves though, small parties are like specialty products and cater to a specific niche of society. By accomodating or emulating the big parties they've suffered a major loss. The AfD succeeded precisely because the brought a different message, albeit disconnected from the reality of the EU and Germany, and frankly rather shortsighted, but different nonetheless.
If the green and FDP learn something, then it should be to return to their origins. For the FDP my hope is that it returns to embracing the real liberal values rather than just supporting tax reduction. They should be a voice for the separation of church and state (still not quite clearly done in Germany), liberalizing the service industry and the job market, improving conditions for educated ex-patriates, promoting civil rights and so on.
The greens should remember that the required technology for sustainable energy/food/anything depends on innovation, which cannot happen if you push companies to do research elsewhere, and drive away the profesionals by raising taxes. They should remember green is not red.
So let's hope both parties draw the right conclusions from their defeats instead of just launching a witch hunt (although Mr. Trittin seriously needs to go, supporting the legalization of sexual relations with minors is not something that can be or should be forgiven). If they do, then the political debate in Germany will be enriched and democracy will improve. That's my hope.
Being honest though, she does have strengths and her victory is the least worse scenario for Germany and Europe. Furthermore, now she has the political capital to presse for more union in the EU, and to pushe for reforms within Germany, hopefuly also the courage. But I disgress.
What I really wanted to talk about is the overwhelming defeat of the FDP and their failure to overcome the 5% threshhold, and the low numbers for the greens. In the past years we've seen a decline in the political debate as yellow (FDP) shifted towards black (CDU) and green towards red (SPD). Politics have been done by opinion polls as a consequence of the proportional representation system, leading to a loss of diferentiation between parties.
As the rise of the AfD proves though, small parties are like specialty products and cater to a specific niche of society. By accomodating or emulating the big parties they've suffered a major loss. The AfD succeeded precisely because the brought a different message, albeit disconnected from the reality of the EU and Germany, and frankly rather shortsighted, but different nonetheless.
If the green and FDP learn something, then it should be to return to their origins. For the FDP my hope is that it returns to embracing the real liberal values rather than just supporting tax reduction. They should be a voice for the separation of church and state (still not quite clearly done in Germany), liberalizing the service industry and the job market, improving conditions for educated ex-patriates, promoting civil rights and so on.
The greens should remember that the required technology for sustainable energy/food/anything depends on innovation, which cannot happen if you push companies to do research elsewhere, and drive away the profesionals by raising taxes. They should remember green is not red.
So let's hope both parties draw the right conclusions from their defeats instead of just launching a witch hunt (although Mr. Trittin seriously needs to go, supporting the legalization of sexual relations with minors is not something that can be or should be forgiven). If they do, then the political debate in Germany will be enriched and democracy will improve. That's my hope.
Thinking about a blog
I am still debating with myself whether to start the blog again or not. Truth be told, I did start once, not long ago, mainly because a) I have something to say, b) I had nothing better to do. Why I am debating with myself now is because I still have quite a bit to say, and might like getting my thoughts on paper, and yet am aware that Blogging is not the type of thing I follow through.
Furthermore, now I really have "better" things to do, in that my social life has blossomed in comparison to the time at which I started my former blog. Not that much has changed, mainly just the fact that I moved to a new city. Another reason why I'm not sure is because I would like people to know I am the one doing it, so not anonymous, and share it with friends and acquaintances.
The question that poses is, do I want my friends to know the thoughts I intend to publish if I do the blog. Many of the lines of thought I pursue at the moment refer to a reflection of my place in society as a whole and how I interact with it, which happenst to build a stark contrast to the way others interact with the world.
I am aware that a big portion of it is my intelligence, and my education both in the sense of what my parents taught me and in the sense that I've been priviledged by attending a very good college and universities. I am also aware that my experience as an expatriate has changed my worldview and expanded my horizons in a greater way than I thought it would.
Finally, the other thing I might like publishing in order to expand my audience, is my experience at the wine tasting events I orgnize for an expat community. and here's where it gets more complicated. I can blog about that in the platform in which I organize the events, but probably just about the wine, and not about the whole experience. I'd like, however, to relate my experience and the enrichment that meeting the people in the group has brought me.
So do I really want to relate this thoughts, publish them to the world and let other people know about this particular group? Do I allow others to read my, yes sometimes quite arrogant and sometimes elitist, thoughts? My posts will be open to misinterpretation, specially since I strongly believe we're not all born equal, but society as a whole should be egalitarian.
And this is the first misinterpretation for me egalitarian society allows equal opportunities, not equal results. So I land at the right of the political scale, but I am not conservative, I am liberal. So a review of how the political spectrum is defined (with probably a short explanation of why right is right and left is left) might be necessary.
I will leave this short post for now, and sleep on it to decide whether I want to do the blog or not. If you're reading it, then this might be the first in a series of postings, but I cannot promise I'll keep at it for a long time.
Furthermore, now I really have "better" things to do, in that my social life has blossomed in comparison to the time at which I started my former blog. Not that much has changed, mainly just the fact that I moved to a new city. Another reason why I'm not sure is because I would like people to know I am the one doing it, so not anonymous, and share it with friends and acquaintances.
The question that poses is, do I want my friends to know the thoughts I intend to publish if I do the blog. Many of the lines of thought I pursue at the moment refer to a reflection of my place in society as a whole and how I interact with it, which happenst to build a stark contrast to the way others interact with the world.
I am aware that a big portion of it is my intelligence, and my education both in the sense of what my parents taught me and in the sense that I've been priviledged by attending a very good college and universities. I am also aware that my experience as an expatriate has changed my worldview and expanded my horizons in a greater way than I thought it would.
Finally, the other thing I might like publishing in order to expand my audience, is my experience at the wine tasting events I orgnize for an expat community. and here's where it gets more complicated. I can blog about that in the platform in which I organize the events, but probably just about the wine, and not about the whole experience. I'd like, however, to relate my experience and the enrichment that meeting the people in the group has brought me.
So do I really want to relate this thoughts, publish them to the world and let other people know about this particular group? Do I allow others to read my, yes sometimes quite arrogant and sometimes elitist, thoughts? My posts will be open to misinterpretation, specially since I strongly believe we're not all born equal, but society as a whole should be egalitarian.
And this is the first misinterpretation for me egalitarian society allows equal opportunities, not equal results. So I land at the right of the political scale, but I am not conservative, I am liberal. So a review of how the political spectrum is defined (with probably a short explanation of why right is right and left is left) might be necessary.
I will leave this short post for now, and sleep on it to decide whether I want to do the blog or not. If you're reading it, then this might be the first in a series of postings, but I cannot promise I'll keep at it for a long time.
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