Choosing a Coalition

So, elections a foregone conclusion, new leaders for the Green and FDP have been chosen (on whom I'll comment when a.- they become official and b.- they have some relevance which is to say, have done something). For the time being the question in everyone's mind is will it be a grand coalition (CDU/CSU/SPD) a black/green coalition or far less palatable red/red/green?

I posit that Angela Merkel should not even approach the SPD who're still undecided if they'd agree to a grand coalition and instead first address the green party. There are several points why this is the best solution and also the most promising, so let us go over it:

1.- The SPD has not yet decided whether they want a grand coalition, and they went on a platform based on increased taxes, which would lower Germany's competitivness to attract qualified immigrants (German language being already a rather daunting barrier for some). They are also unlikely to support any of the reforms which Germany needs and were the ones to get rid of the nomminal tuition fees for university students.

2.- The SPD's record is also not very good. They got Nordrhine Westfalia on a platform for education, after which Hanelore Kraft (who leads the state's parliament) started cutting education budget and reducing the number of teachers.

3.- After the election the Green party has gotten rid of Mr. Trittin who's in part responsible for making the party rather red than green. The new leadership is more likely to accomodate serious proposals instead of just rambling about tax increases. Furthermore, ruling on a national level with the CDU would make wonders for the greens, they might remember what they stand for and help their shift to the right (which is to be expected under the new leadership).

4.- If Merkel takes too long to form a ruling coalition and the SPD decides it cannot enter the grand coalition they might be tempted to attempt a red/red/green coalition. This would be the worst possible outcome, even if such a coalition is likely to cause early elections they would wreak havoc by setting a minimum wage beyond all reasonable values, rising taxes and just basically making a lousy copy of the DDR.

A black/green coalition would provide a solid majority in parliament and start the political debate rolling again in parliament. A black/red coalition with Merkel's particular brand of conciliatory leadership would just make politics in Germany even more dull. If there's hope that Ms. Merkel will rise to the challenge of pushing through the reforms needed in Germany and Europe, then black/green is the most adequate platform.