The day was July 2, 2006. Back then I was still living in Monterrey, not so far from the border. A relatively safe city which has the riches neighborhood in the country (San Pedro). Those who came from the DF (Mexico city) were usually shunned and Monterrey flaunted its safety. Back then the election was tight, I myself stood 8 hours in line to cast my vote and thus contribute to keep the populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador from office. With a tiny margin the more conservative minded Mexicans succeeded and Felipe Calderon won the election.
A year earlier the US had lifted a ban on selling assault rifles to the civilian population, and crime was rising in Mexico (according to Calderon as a direct consequence of lifting this ban). Mr Calderon launched a campaign against the drug cartels. Murder rates spiraled reaching a body count of 60 thousand. With drug trafficking being harder to achieve the drug organizations turned to kidnapping and extortion.
After 6 years of fighting this particular war, Calderon had still failed to make the necessary reforms to improve the police force. For those unfamiliar with the Mexican police force, there's the Federal police, then state, and then municipal, and there's transit, again federal, state and municipal. This is of course an administrative nightmare. Police are also badly paid, and mostly corrupt.
The population is also quite complacent with corruption at a small level, such that paying in cash instead of getting a ticket is not an uncommon practice. Though the required paradigm shift is unlikely to happen overnight, and with one of the drug lords still making it to the Forbes 500 billionaire list, the government has a daunting task before them.
Then in 2012 Mr. Pena Nieto won the election, bringing back the PRI to power (which ruled for 70 years until Vicente Fox won in 2000). He promised to make the necessary changes to curb violence, and instead of focusing on drugs, focus on other crimes and on improving living conditions. As the economist the economist says in this weeks edition, he's failing.
He's not failing spectacularly because for one, media attention on security has dwindled, and after years of fighting the crime rates have actually dropped. But this trend had started back when Calderon was still president, and I still have to see any major difference on how they address the problem.
Although in didn't support Mr. Pena Nieto while on campaign, and didn't want him as president, I'll agree some of his reforms have been good. Hopefully he'll get the much required energy reform through, and his education reform is already a great achievement (though the teacher's union will still try to oppose it and it will take years before the real benefits can be seen). Still his tax reform is misdirected and his attempt to tax soft drinks will hardly dent obesity.
In the end, with some states within the US making the use of recreational marijuana legal, Mexico must take action. If the government spends resources fighting its production and transport to the us, only for it to be legal across the border, Mexico has better and more important things to do with its money.
Those who oppose drug legalization will say that this won't really reduce the drug traffickers income, and they'd be mostly right since they might get other sources, so it won't threaten their existence. Worse they might, as under Calderon, turn to other crimes. The important thing is, the government can now concentrate on fighting the violent crimes. So we're not at the turning point on which all drugs should be legalized and face the controls of say the pharmaceutical industry, but for marijuana, the time is ripe.
Mr. Obama has already signalized that he won't oppose it within the US as Bush did. Ownership for consumption is already legal in Mexico, and Guatemala has already legalized. It is now the time to pass proper legislation in Mexico, both to improve the police force and pay them adequately, and to legalize marijuana.
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